AI Startup Valuation Multiples in 2026
Live benchmarks for what AI startups actually sell for in 2026 — by ARR band, category, model dependency and growth rate.
Sub-$1M ARR AI SaaS trades at 3.2–4.8x SDE. Vertical AI with proprietary data commands 5–7x. Pure OpenAI wrappers now discount to 1.8–2.5x. Growth rate matters less than gross margin and NRR.
The 2026 baseline
Post the mid-2025 AI-wrapper reset, buyers price model risk explicitly. The biggest multiple spread in the market is between wrapper businesses and businesses with defensible data or workflows.
- Vertical AI SaaS: 4.5–7x SDE
- Horizontal AI tools: 3.0–4.5x SDE
- API-wrapper apps: 1.8–2.5x SDE
- AI datasets / evals: 4.0–6.0x SDE
- Agent products with retention: 5.0–8.0x SDE
What moves the multiple up
Net revenue retention above 105%, self-hosted or fine-tuned models, contracted enterprise revenue, and a founder willing to stay 6+ months post-close each add 0.4–0.8x.
What moves it down
Single-model dependency, high refund rates, unattributed traffic, and founder-brand-driven distribution each cut 0.3–0.6x.
Frequently asked questions
How is SDE different from EBITDA?
SDE (Seller's Discretionary Earnings) adds the owner's compensation and one-time expenses back to profit — it's the standard for sub-$5M businesses.
Do buyers still pay a growth premium?
Yes, but only when growth is efficient. A 200% YoY company burning 3x its revenue trades at wrapper multiples.